Trader Notes

Three takeaways stood out from Aaron Courtney (@probaaron)’s analysis of every trade in Kalshi’s “Who will be Trump’s next Press Secretary?” market, which settled to Katie Zacharia on Friday (10/9) (Pulse 064, which covered Kalshi’s investigation into suspicious trades on her pick):

1. Yes buyers paid $502,511 for names that settled at zero, led by Scott Jennings ($171,486) and Maria Bartiromo ($129,674).
2. Zacharia drew $200,004 of Yes buying, but only $1,611 of it came before the news – 11 orders, the largest $483.
3. The median order was $5.70, while orders of $1,000 or more – 1.4% of the total, or about 1 in 69 – paid 53% of the dollars.

Source: Aaron Courtney

Three takeaways stood out from Aaron Courtney (@probaaron)’s analysis on last night’s NFL opener:

1. About 10 minutes after Sam Darnold left the game, takers bought 1.2M New England contracts in a single minute.
2. After the final whistle, Seattle holders sold 572k contracts at 99¢ rather than wait for the $1 settlement – whoever was resting at 99¢ earned the last cent on every fill.
3. Of 58.8M contracts traded across both markets, 11.0M printed before kickoff and 47.8M during the game.

Source: Aaron Courtney