The PM Pulse: The intelligence layer for prediction markets.

Kalshi odds soar for Jensen Huang to exit as NVIDIA CEO

Last night, the odds on Kalshi soared for Jensen Huang to exit as NVIDIA’s CEO. With strong liquidity, the market 1¢ wide, and volume surging, Kalshi was the best real-time read on what NVIDIA’s board would do next.

Here are my top takeaways from trading Kalshi’s “When will Jensen Huang leave as Nvidia CEO?” markets:

• $16.9M traded within 11 hours, more than the average NBA game on Kalshi last night (11/11), which was $16.0M.
• At 9:11 PM ET, less than three hours before the “before Nov 12” contract expired at midnight, takers paid as high as 90¢ for YES, which implies a 90% chance Huang would be out by midnight. Within 30 seconds the price snapped back near 50¢.
• In the three minutes from 9:08 to 9:11 PM ET, takers bought 151K YES contracts, chasing the price from 27¢ to 90¢, including 15.5K YES contracts at 78–90¢ in about seven seconds.
• The “before Nov 12” contract did $7.1M, 42% of the event’s $16.9M total volume.

Source: Kalshi